Projecting the Central Division

Listen, predictions aren’t something I get too carried away with. I say this with the sole purpose of acknowledging that I’m not a psychic nor a probability analyst.

However, I know the game of basketball. Through all the uncertainty that’s called life, basketball has always remained a separate entity for the last twenty years. I’ve talked about hoops with a handful of NBA elites, which includes some of the best basketball minds who don the head of NBA benches.

So grab a soda, or a beer if that makes you feel better, and get comfortable. I’m going to give you my projections for what we’ll see from each team in the Central Division with the Bulls not being included in the discussion. If you disagree with anything, state your case and I’ll be glad to prove you wrong. (Respectfully of course.)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Add the Cavaliers to the list of teams that pulls a desperation move of trading for a “inclined to decline” Shaquille O’Neal. While I don’t mean to belittle Shaq and all of the accomplishments in his career, I find it hard to believe that his presence at this point of his career is going to put Cleveland over the top.

From the standpoint of being offensively balanced, the Cavs opted for a unnecessary shuffle that will take them away from what they should be doing, which is running.

The Cavs have to push the tempo and make more of a effort to be a team that attacks you in transition. And considering how good the Cavaliers are defensively, (guarding the pick&roll being the exception) they should be able to excel in a quicker tempo.

But now, forget that, the paint is going to be clogged, and you’ll be forced to play the half-court game with Shaq. Not like my opinion matters, but if I was running things in Cleveland I would try to make the team more athletic, and I’d make sure that Lebron James gets enough opportunities on the block to become a premier post up player. He’s the player who should be getting the touches down low, we all know the mis-matches he creates.

The Cavs are a lock for the playoffs, which is not saying much. I don’t see Cleveland getting out of the East considering how poorly they defend the pick & roll, and adding Shaq of all players to that mix wouldn’t make me feel any better.

Speaking from a fan’s perspective, sure, hold hope in Lebron’s ability to somehow get better in another facet of his game. I can’t argue that Lebron will have grown even further in his game, as scary as that sounds. But that alone will not get you past the Orlando Magic or Boston Celtics. So, to circle around what I said before, expect some wins in the regular season but don’t expect a easy path in the postseason.

Detroit Pistons

If fans up in Detroit thought losing in the Conference Finals every year was bad, they’ll have a rude awakening once the season begins. The loss of Rasheed Wallace is going to rear it’s head, and I mean big time. Yes, Sheed’ was on the decline and wasn’t what he was offensively during his last years in Detroit, but the loss of his defensive presence is going to be what holds Detroit back this year. He was the backbone of their defense, not only from a stats perspective, but Sheed’ made sure everybody followed suit and stayed vocal on the defensive end.

While the additions of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva seem promising at first glance, you’d have to expect a hell of a lot from Charlie V or the Pistons back court to even have a chance of sniffing the post season.

Look for Richard Hamilton to be moved this year in a trade, and throw Tayshaun Prince into that category. It seems as if Joe D doesn’t want a full rebuild, but rebuilding and trying to win at the professional level is the toughest objective as a general manager.

Indiana Pacers

Usually you don’t mention championship aspirations and the Indiana Pacers in the same sentence. But the name of Danny Granger quickly slides in and suddenly gives a franchise hope. Remember, Granger was the ugly kid at the dance on draft night when everybody passed on him because of knee concerns. Now look at him, coming off a season where he average 25.6 ppg, he’s healthy, and most importantly, his club looks to have a shot this year.

What’s “a shot” to be specific? Well, without getting too carried away, a slightly better opportunity than last year. When the regular season ended in 08-09, the Pacers were right outside the door, knocking all night while nobody bothered to answer.

Fast forward to this year, and you’ll see a roster that’s looking to “turn the page” so to speak on another chapter of Pacers basketball. A team that has been built around running and quick offense, is now starting to develop and acquire valuable defensive pieces. The question is, do any of the Pacer young players have the ability to break out? You can’t leave Granger out there by himself, and I hardly see Troy Murphy as the long term solution.

Brandon Rush, Dhantay Jones, Tyler Hansbrough, and Roy Hibbert are ‘nice’ players, role players at best for right now, but do any of these guys hold the potential to break out of their shell and give the Pacers another legitimate dimension to their team?

If nothing else the Pacers have stocked up on young talent in the draft, and that can’t be overlooked. The onus has clearly shifted to drafting defensive minded players. And for that, I see the Pacers hanging in and giving the 7-8th seed a run for their money.

The Indiana Pacers, a franchise looking up, after so many years of walking with their heads down.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks are a hard team to look at and identify. Not only are you unsure of their future direction, but they fall much into the category of the New Jersey Nets because of the propensity to forget their existence.

What sticks out next year for Milwaukee is the relationship between Brandon Jennings and head coach Scott Skiles. Jennings, not known for defense and playing in a structured offense, may have his run-ins with coach Skiles. Skiles, as we all know, is a strict dictator. But should he pull a Tom Coughlin and shape his attitude and team to fit the personality of a player like Jennings?

To a certain extent, yes.

Jennings is the last player your going to want to put shackles on. This kid has to have the ball in his hands a lot to learn, but I think at the same time the Buck’s offense should gear more towards getting up and down the floor. You draft a player for a reason, and let Ramon Sessions go, so you mine as well let Jennings’ do his thing.

Let’s be real, the Bucks are going nowhere this year. But you still have areas of intrigue, can Joe Alexander show why the Bucks drafted him ahead of Brook Lopez? Will Michael Redd have enough in the knees to show he can still do it? Will Andrew Bogut finally step up as a post presence in Milwaukee?

Lots of question marks and “wait and see” situations.

Regardless if the Bucks don’t make the post season, realistically, your looking for the long term solution at point guard to show his worth. If you don’t compete and don’t see the “it” factor from Jennings, then I’d begin to get worried.

We’re going to see some good battles in the Central this year, with a Bulls/Pistons match-up first coming to mind. Looking forward, it seems as if Cleveland and Chicago will be holding top spots in the division, with Indiana trailing behind. Put money on Detroit and Milwaukee being the ugly ducklings of the Central, but it’s all good. We’ve all been there.

Tags: Ben Gordon, Brandon Jennings, Brandon Rush, Brook Lopez, Charlie Vallanueva, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Danny Granger, Detroit Pistons, Dhantay Jones, Indiana Pacers, Joe Alexander, Lebron James, Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks, Rasheed Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Roy Hibbert, Scott Skiles, Shaquille O'Neal, Tayshaun Prince, Tyler Hansbrough